This discussion is about who really started the Great War based on evidence and facts provided throughout the Fallout games to make an educated guess on who really started the Great War. 

As a large chunk of Fallout Players, including me personally would agree China was the one that most likely launched first based on a bunch of facts, those being:

1. The United States Military after successfully eliminating the invading Chinese Forces began their own invasion of China. Initially being decimated by Chinese Forces, the deployment of T-51 Power Armor Units resulted in American victories in many key Chinese cities. With China at fear of being conquered and controlled by the United states most likely prepared to launch the Nuclear arsenal once a certain point was reached. 

2. China like most other countries in the Fallout universe were crumbling and falling into conflict with each other following the depletion of major resources. After oil trades with the United States proved to be unsuccessful and with China continuing to fall apart the decision to invade Alaska was enacted, though this proved to ultimately fail. China fearing loosing the War and now also fearing the complete depletion of their remaining resources way no other choice but to either surrender or utilize their nuclear arsenal. 

3. The United States based on previous points was obviously fairing better then most other countries after successfully defending Alaska, annexing Canada and Mexico, and having an successful invasion of China. The U.S. was also not entirely dependent on oil as most cars and electrical power sources were of nuclear, atomic, or fusion power (Possibly also Plasma).  Given all this the U.S. would have no point in nuking the entier world or causing that chain reaction. 

4. The United states detected the launch of Nuclear weapons. According to the Fallout wiki (I will let you judge on how accurate they are) the U.S. Pacific fleet detected three submerged objects which were most likely submarines at around 12:03am . The US Air Force fighters then spotted a squadron of unknown aircraft at high altitude off the Bering Straits of Alaska at 3:37am Eastern Time. Four probable nuclear missile launches were detected by the Integrated Operational Nuclear Detection System at 9:13am. Four minutes later at 9:17am, NORAD confirms nuclear missile launches and bombers loaded with nuclear ordnance were immediately scrambled on combat sortie. Basically the U.S. detected and monitored the unidentified aircraft and subs until detecting Nuclear launch at approximately 9:17am resulting in a scramble of bombers and fighters. Immediately MX-CN91 (Nuclear Response) was enacted by the U.S. President resulting in the launch of Nuclear tipped ICBMs. This was according to the Enclave President Richardson and while possibly a lie, is most likely not given the timings, and how this would match with other pieces of evidence found through the Fallout titles. An example of this would be in Fallout 4 where the DIA terminal i
An example of this would be in Fallout 4 where the DIA terminal in the Switchboard detects and plays out exactly what was told to you by President Richardson. Possible Chinese planes, detected launch, Nuclear Response protocols (MX-CN91), confirmed strikes. Nothing of the US firing first which would most likely be displayed. 

Based on all the evidence displayed, I believe that the US did not launch first. I believe that China launched first fearing an imminent defeat and lack of resources to keep fighting. Though it is possible that China lost control of its troops following the lack of supplies with some personal taking it on themselves to "get back" at the US, either way China seems to have launched first. The probability of the USSR also firing first could be a possibility but given they were on better terms with the U.S. and would gain nothing from it, it seems unlikely but still a possibility. If you wish to, you may respond as that's why I put all the time into this. If not thanks for reading and I hope you learned something about the Fallout lore. As a side note there were more pieces of evidence but they were either added to the 4 points or left out due to how long this was getting. (Over 500 words 2long4me!) 

Little Notice(s): Things I felt were important to read were made bold hopefully encouraging people to read the important bits and decide a response or simply take this amazing useful knowledge and leaving. Oh yeah and could someone tell me how to @ someone. If I had to @ someone or die I would be dead because I can not figure it out no matter how hard I try.

Given the speed and efficiency the Enclave set up with as a result of the war, I question whether that implies the US started it. Of course it could just mean that the higher ups in the government realized the launches were coming in advance, just not far enough in advance to do anything about it.

I'll tell ya who started the great war! It was those damn chupacabras! Always meddlin' in human affairs...

It doesn't matter who started it and it should never be explicitly told. Fallout games are about civilization moving forward, not living in the past (somebody forgot to tell this to Bethesda unfortunately). For most people more important would be survival and protection of their communities and caravans, not sitting and discussing who did what almost two centuries ago.

Also I have to remind that at 2077 the world was out of resources, a gallon of gas cost thousands, there were mass food riots and the New Plague. What Bethesda showed in FO4 from the Pre-War world was utterly wrong. Nuclear missiles wouldn't have changed much since world would've gone to shit anyway.

And making China be the one who launched the nukes is incredibly dumb because US was just as expansionist, aggressively suppressing civil unrest with power armor and developing the FEV in secret at West-Tek, so making them the poor victim is lame. Not to mention, most people in 2277 don't even know what a China is, so what difference it would make to them?

@s0mbo1 The Enclave, part of the U.S. Government was preparing encase of Nuclear War. The Enclave's original purpose was to leave Earth and find a new home world for humanity to restart. Hence the purpose of the Vaults. The experiments were made to test human reactions with stressful or "un-conventional" situations like the inhabitants of Vault 101 being stuck in confined spaces for the eternity of their life, or Vault 111 were they tested cryogenic storage to see if it would work and what the long term effects were. I do not believe that the U.S. Government wanted to start the war though because as I stated they were fairing the best, and winning the war against China.

@superpele Yes, I know Fallout is meant to show how the world is moving on and surviving and that an answer really shouldn't be told. But it appears that one was told. President Richardson even tells you what happened and his version of the events that unfolded line up with what Pre-War data computers say also. You could say that the U.S. started it but as I stated earlier why? They were winning the war against China and controlled all of North America. Also I did not try to make the U.S. seem as these innocent victims as the annexation of Canada from what we know was due to the large number of troops in Canada. There was also resistance that was crushed due to Powered Armored Units annihilating them. Lastly as a Canadian Citizen I actually did not like the fact that Canada was annexed but based on real life events it would seem the most likely possibility. Regarding power, the U.S. had a hold on some of the remaining oil due to the annexation of Mexico and good relations with Poseidon Energy. Also from what we know the U.S. was not entirely reliant on oil as cars, robotics, and most energy came from fusion, Nuclear or even possibly Plasma. Finishing off with Pre-War China. China appears through the way how Captain Zao acts in Fallout 4, their civilization is not build off of capitalism and makes multiple negative remarks toward it. They appear to be Social/Communists based on how they act. Though it is understandable that they may be different you have to take into account the current state of China in the Fallout Universe and see that China was on the brink of defeat with parts of China being under U.S. control, Chinese troops being annihilated by T-51 Units, and China's all ready low amount of supply's almost completely used up, it is possible that China did not see defeat as an option and decided to "die with honor" instead of being controlled by the U.S. and ultimately destroyed. Have to agree with you on Limit 115 or the "New Plague" as even in 2288 Duncan, MacReady's son seems to have been infected with the virus featuring symptoms similar to that of Limit 115. It also appears that with the combination of FEV and Limit 115 breeding is again possible as seen with the Swamp folk which was known to most likely contain the virus.

I reckon the Chinese; the US were winning the war, for them to then set off nukes wouldn't make any sense or provide any strategic advantages, knowing the Chinese could fire back.

It would be more a move out of desperation, which the Chinese were at the time - running out of oil and losing ground in the war etc. It could also have been a case of 'if we go down your coming down with us', as China would surely know the US has an equally capable nuclear weapons programme to retaliate with.

Of course everything is speculation however

I know that Mothership Zeta had a cut content piece telling that the Aliens actually acquired launch codes from a military guy they abducted.

I think that the Chinese would have been the first to actually engage, just from the characters in the franchise that talked about how zealous the Chinese were. But then again, both sides were a tad bit excited when it came to mass-murder.

However, I personally think that Bethesda should never reveal who actually threw the first punch. Makes for a more interesting story methinks.

@Lucianhector Exactly what i'm saying, with the U.S. winning the war they had no plausible reason to annihilate China. Furthermore as stated the Chinese were in a economic and resource crisis while having to deal with the advancing American Forces. Either China losses to the U.S. or China loses and take everyone with them. 

@jimmywhistles Huh never knew that the aliens gained Launch codes. Shame they cut it from the final game as it would of been cool to possibly use it just for fun. 

Still probably cut because the missiles would of most likely been useless since the facility is destroyed/ruined, Missile is decayed, or even possibly launched. Probably a good idea though as a sizable portion of the community disliked having to launch the Ashton Missile Silo ICBM in Lonesome Road to simply continue.

The President of the Enclave may not be the most reliable and unbiased source of information. And please don't pull the alien nonsense into this.

Also, delving into the wiki, I found an interesting bit of info - holodisk from the founder of BoS, who basically goes AWOL several days before the Great War. Seeing how no-one even really cares about the rogue facility, I think it kind of shows that the last couple of days United States was in full anarchy, so that may have or have not influenced some red button pushing.

@superpele I hope when you said to "not bring alien nonsense into this" you were referring to jimmywhistles response. The President of the Enclave is not the most reliable but based on Pre-War records from The Switchboard in Fallout 4 which states that at 12:03am COMPACFLT (Pacific Fleet) detected 3 unidentified submerged bodies off the California Coast. Let us not forget who in the Fallout universe inhabits San Francisco, The Shi who abandoned their submarine off the Coast of California. The terminal also states that a squadron of unidentified aircraft were flying off of Baring Straight which is the border from Russia and America (Alaska) at 3:37am long before any American response. Fast forward to around 9:00am and the planes are almost, if not already at there drop destination, submarines ready and on standby on both the West and East Coast of the U.S. This can be seen as the Yangtze-31 is right off the American coast ready to fire. In fact it is most likely that the Yangtze launched its nukes at and around Boston. Following Chinese launch the Americans scrambled and awaited for Response codes to be enacted effectively unleashing the American Nuclear arsenal worldwide. Going back to what the Enclave President said, his story, actual events witnessed in game, and that of Pre War records matches perfectly. 

Moving on to the AWOL deserters of Mariposa Military Base. I'm guessing there was no response due to the fact that the Government would like to keep the FEV testing secret. Top that with the fact that the Military is all ready busy dealing with the Chinese threat and also the food riots in the various cities as seen in the Lonesome Road DLC for FNV. The Riot Armored Units were being used to detain rioters who were then sent off to Big MT. for testing. Still it does create the possibility that some Rouge Americans launched first. But based on the fact that according to The Switchboard terminal which states that 4 launches were detected within a very short time to be included in one report instead of separate ones highly suggests that it was a coordinated strike that if rouge Americans attempted would be exposed almost immediately.

In my own opinion, I dont believe its important who started it, because both sides ended it. And it was the people who paid the price. Putting a face to a name would be interesting and all that, but when it comes down to it these people can(or may) never face the consequences for their crime of blowing up the world. In the end, all we have to know is both sides pushed the button.
But thats my opinion on it. If your asking me who I think started it, I believe both parties are to blame for letting it get as far as it did.

@ZombieRedNeck In a way the United States never stopped. The Enclave is as we know are the remnants of the United States Government and still wished to continue the war against Communism by originally destroying the world and finding a new home world where Democracy would be the founding principles. Though as we know that didn't work and they tried to recreate America using the vault dwellers and the Enclave personal. So really the Enclave when asked are the only ones who had a plan for humanity while the Chinese did not and decided to bring everyone with them.  

Again, I have to disagree with you on who is to blame as China through desperation attacked and invaded the United States, which in turn effectively set off a cascade of events which ultimately lead to China starting the Great war based on the evidence provided by the Enclave, Pre-War terminals and events/locations seen throughout the games.

@"superpele" Couldn't agree more, well said.

MrEggs0925 wrote:

@Lucianhector Exactly what i'm saying, with the U.S. winning the war they had no plausible reason to annihilate China. Furthermore as stated the Chinese were in a economic and resource crisis while having to deal with the advancing American Forces. Either China losses to the U.S. or China loses and take everyone with them. 

@jimmywhistles Huh never knew that the aliens gained Launch codes. Shame they cut it from the final game as it would of been cool to possibly use it just for fun. 

Still probably cut because the missiles would of most likely been useless since the facility is destroyed/ruined, Missile is decayed, or even possibly launched. Probably a good idea though as a sizable portion of the community disliked having to launch the Ashton Missile Silo ICBM in Lonesome Road to simply continue.

Although I don't know much Fallout lore (I.m gonna watch the StoryTeller series soon) I gotta agree with this. It makes the most since to me.

@"LightSabersEdge" The Storyteller series is the best way to learn the basics of almost everything in the franchise, while still managing to hold an entertaining premise. Definitely a must-watch, I would say.

The quality goes up considerably with each passing season, but the cheesiness does as well, so keep that in mind! And if you really like the main character there's a nexus mod that adds him as a companion that i'll link real quick:

http://www.nexusmods.com/newvegas/mods/58473/?

superpele wrote:

The President of the Enclave may not be the most reliable and unbiased source of information. And please don't pull the alien nonsense into this.

Also, delving into the wiki, I found an interesting bit of info - holodisk from the founder of BoS, who basically goes AWOL several days before the Great War. Seeing how no-one even really cares about the rogue facility, I think it kind of shows that the last couple of days United States was in full anarchy, so that may have or have not influenced some red button pushing.

This is kind of true from what we hear about a few events before the war, at least in US territory (the situation in Canada or the Food Riots) but from Fallout 4's opening it seemed that life was going on as normal for the most part (well, as normal as can be for a world like Fallout). According to that, Maxson declared his secession from the US 2 days prior. It's likely a continuity issue more than anything else, or perhaps the situation on the West coast was far more dire than that in the East? It's also possible it was due to the military scrambling to numerous other issues. It still seems like somewhat of a consistency error considering the importance of FEV research. Then again, by this point a lot of groups were already predicting the Great War which to most people in position of power likely seemed inevitable. I'd say the great war was probably started by China, considering the way in which the newscaster in Fallout 4 reacts suggests the bombs were launched against the US first. Then again, your only getting one side of the story. I doubt US news, which in that type of society, considering the way they spoke and the Fat Man commercial beforehand was likely heavily propaganda based, they aren't too likely to broadcast that they launched nukes against China. We do know that China had nuclear capable vessels waiting in US waters so it is possible they did strike first when the war turned heavily against them, considering their losses in anchorage and the apparent American success in the Yangtze campaign, it's likely that China also launched the Nukes when it became aware of the increasing likelihood of a US victory, as a way taking out their enemies and going down in a blaze of glory, or nuclear fire.
Another alternative is that the US fired the nukes in the hope of breaking the stalemate that apparently exists, as many sources (Fallout Bible, though non-canon does fill in some gaps and a few in game sources such as the point about the US' lack of a reaction to Maxson) claim the US supply lines and military were extremely strained and possibly close to breaking point. They may have fired the weapons hoping to frighten China into a surrender. When that happened is that China shot back, which caused the US to retaliate back and forth with China with more and more nukes until other countries (such as Russia and remaining European nations with some degree of Nuclear power) begin firing as well causing the whole world to fall apart. There's really not too much to go on canonically and I actually like that. It doesn't REALLY matter who shot first. I think that's part of the point. That world is dead. Even if we know that China or the US did it, what comes of that? It's not like we'll have a chance to stop or avenge it. The great war is a testament to mankind's greatest mistakes, and that war never changes. People are still fighting 200 years later. They haven't really learned anything from their past mistakes. If the Brotherhood, the NCR, the Legion, Enclave, Super Mutants or other major Wasteland powers possessed nukes (and in some cases do) they would readily use them (and once again, they do).

there is a theory out there that the aliens started (or rather pushed things in motions to start the war.
as jimmywhistles stated, I read the cut content that they extracted launch codes from a US officer (as well as other key members of other country) there is this guy that covers this theory

also lets not forget that Skynet does exist aswell in the fallout universe!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-wF_1cv1a_4

@TheCrimsonBuckr  Yes they had lunch codes but it was cut and cut content cannot be considered lore. Also the author of the video states that "aliens do exist in our universe" (meaning real world) without providing any evidence to confirm that. Due to this, the validity of his argument can be questioned as to where he got his information and if it is all true, a half truth, or mostly speculation with some facts provided.  

Now by looking back at my previous points made I stated that the US detected enemy bombers and submarines off the West Coast and as seen in Fallout 4 the East Coast of the U.S. While it i shard to confirm what the bombers were doing the submarines can be confirmed. The Chinese subs were holding ICBM's as seen in Fallout 4 on the Yangtze. Also taking a look at San Francisco you can see that a group called the Shi were the decedents of a Chinese sub crew. Now why would Chinese submarines and bombers come to the U.S? Why would they be carrying an arsenal of nukes as stated earlier unless they wanted to attack the U.S. first? Also the only remaining survivor of the Yangtze states that he fired his nuclear tipped Salvos as ordered. 

In conclusion while it is interesting that aliens might of started the great war, it was cut as the amount of evidence to support a Chinese preemptive strike is immense. Even President Richardson of the Enclave (the U.S Government's remnants) states that China launched first though you have to take that info with a grain of salt as he could be lying. Though the possibility of alien intervention is and will always be a possibility i do not see enough evidence to support that.

It's not clear who attacked first but most likely after the reclamation of anchorage and the ensuing resource wars china reacted with biological weapons known as the plauge fo3 point lookout , Us responded with attempting to create FEV supersoldiers and the virus itself eventually they got pissed of about their downfall as a superpower and invaded Canada somewhere before anchorage. Mexico was not directly part of Us but was a subservient nation of Us companies such as Petro Chico and Poseidon energy eventually the bombs fell on both china and US its known by the dialoge of Raul that Mexico got hit harder than the Us or just the Mojave at least. War never changes in the end the war was about petrol money resources and the superpowers struggle or should I say pissing contest to see who was better. Nuclear fire consumed all destroying the fanatical anticommunist capitalists. And the brainwashed Communists. War is profit War never changes

Correction

The Chinese "attack" was actually a Cover up by good ol US Of A
Thanks for the correction the lore makes more sense now

Keep on posting any more 2077 war lore for the better understanding of fallouts world and message
.

@Jorilo "The Plague" was made by the United States and stolen by Chinese spies. The spies were caught in a public area, shot, and the vials broke spreading the virus. Canada was made part of the United States due to the resource crisis, same with Mexico it was both of strategic and economical value though as you said was not taken completely under control unlike Canada. Its hard to compare the Mojave and the a lot of the other locations as Las Vegas was under defense from a house's defense system while other locations were not. 

While the reasons behind war never change, the events leading to it are different.